Clarity and Uncertainty - March 2025
On Wednesday, March 18, the Federal Reserve (FED) held the Federal Funds interest rate steady at 4.25%-4.50% but adjusted the inputs used in its economic forecast. Higher tariff expectations led the FED to increase their PCE inflation forecasts by 0.3% to 2.8% for 2025 while at the same time downgrading their forecasts of GDP growth by 0.4% to 1.7% for the year. The FED continues to project two rate cuts in 2025 in their dot plot, but there remains much uncertainty around the timing of the expected cuts. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell made it clear that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is not in a hurry to cut rates and prefers to wait for further clarity on tariffs and other policies that may impact economic forecasts.
Reflecting on the past two quarters, we are struck by the significant reversal that has occurred in financial markets. Stocks and bonds finished the year near their lows as investors feared a Federal Reserve intent on stomping out inflation would…
2022 was a year characterized by abysmal returns for both stocks and bonds. Large company stocks, represented by the S&P 500 fell nearly 20% for the year. Small stocks (Russell 2000 index) fared slightly worse. Technology and growth stocks,…
After six consecutive 0.75% increases the Federal Reserve increased the Fed Funds interest rate on Wednesday, December 14, 0.50%. On Thursday, December 15, the Bank of England followed with a 0.50% increase to their own policy rate after having…
The selloff in markets continued in the third quarter. Below is performance data on various indices for the quarter.
After a wild week of trading in the markets, a few paragraphs from our April 2022 essay couldn't be more appropriate. The full Newsletter can be found here: KLCM Newsletter.
With the future seeming incredibly uncertain and the investment landscape…
The first quarter of 2022 is now in the books. Below is performance data on various indices for the quarter.
