Clarity and Uncertainty - March 2025
On Wednesday, March 18, the Federal Reserve (FED) held the Federal Funds interest rate steady at 4.25%-4.50% but adjusted the inputs used in its economic forecast. Higher tariff expectations led the FED to increase their PCE inflation forecasts by 0.3% to 2.8% for 2025 while at the same time downgrading their forecasts of GDP growth by 0.4% to 1.7% for the year. The FED continues to project two rate cuts in 2025 in their dot plot, but there remains much uncertainty around the timing of the expected cuts. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell made it clear that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is not in a hurry to cut rates and prefers to wait for further clarity on tariffs and other policies that may impact economic forecasts.
The upward trend in economically sensitive stocks paused during the third quarter. The market has had to come to grips with a resurgence in COVID-19 via the delta variant, uncertainty emanating from Washington D.C. surrounding fiscal spending and…
August 10, 2020 will go down in history as the first time a high yield, or junk bond, priced at under 3%.
Ball Corporation, rated one notch below investment grade by the rating agencies, was able to issue 10-year bonds at a yield of 2.85%. This…
For equity markets, the third quarter was an extension of the first half of 2020. Large growth stocks - led by mega-cap tech issues - continued their dominance. Other sectors lagged, led by the poor performance of financial shares, as the Federal…
As we begin to get a peek at what 2020 might have in store for investors, we continue to see some encouraging signs in the economic data. Following a growth slowdown in the middle part of 2019 as the US-China trade war stifled businesses’…
There is an investing adage that says, “Don’t fight the Fed,” and has that adage ever proven true this cycle, but especially so in both 2018 and 2019. It’s been well documented that various rounds of so-called “Quantitative Easing” coming out of the…
On Wednesday, August 14th broad stock market indices experienced a roughly 3% drop across the board – the worst day of 2019. Stocks sold off immediately at the opening bell and continued to worsen throughout the day. The reason: a growing sense of…
